99% of your effort is wasted (and how to find the 1%)

99% of your effort is wasted.

Naval Ravikant said this, and he's right.

The good news? This is normal. The challenge is finding the 1% that matters—and focusing everything on it.

I Chased Every Opportunity

For years, I treated ForkOn like a lottery.

I'd attend all possible logistics fairs and startup events, hoping to meet THE big customer or THE right investor. Try every marketing channel because "you never know". Build features single customers requested because maybe that would unlock growth.

The logic made sense: more attempts = better chances.

But here's what actually happened: I was so busy chasing options that when real opportunities showed up, I barely noticed them.

My €500k Accident

In 2019, ForkOn was still early. We didn't even have a real product yet.

My co-founder went to a finance fair with corporate CEOs—not because we had a strategy, but because someone gave us a free ticket and we figured, "Why not?"

He ended up talking to the CEO of a manufacturing company. A few months of negotiation later, we closed a €500k deal.

The best part? They wanted us to develop a feature we were already planning to build anyway.

Pure luck.

My immediate reaction: "Okay wow, how do we replicate?"

I started analyzing everything. Which fair? What setup? What did he say? How did the conversation start?

Then it hit me.

I can't reproduce this.

I don't even know what I missed by being at that fair. Maybe there was a different event that same day where I could have met someone worth €1M. Or maybe not.

The problem wasn't getting lucky. The problem was I had no idea how to create the conditions for luck to happen more often.

What I Learned the Last Years: You Can Engineer Luck

Naval describes four types of luck, and understanding them changed how I work: 

Here's what matters: Types 3 and 4 compound. Type 2 doesn't.

Type 2 feels productive. You're busy. You're networking. You're trying.

But you're still hoping to stumble into something good.

Types 3 and 4 are different. You're building assets that attract the right opportunities over time.

After that €500k deal, I made a shift.

I stopped going to random fairs or events.

Instead:

• I got obsessively good at understanding forklifts, problems in intralogistics, and how to solve them (Type 3)
• I built a recognizable brand around optimizing forklifts (Type 4)
• I created a brilliant team that can deliver value to customers for years, even without me (Type 3) & (Type 4)

The difference? I stopped wasting effort on things that might work and started investing in things that compound.

This Week's Action: Figure Out Where Your Effort Goes

Here's what you can do:

Step 1: Write down everything you're doing to "create opportunities"

Your list might include:

• Social media platforms you're active on
• Partnerships you're pursuing
• Fairs or networking events
• Content you're creating

Now be honest with yourself. For each item, ask:

• Is this Type 2? (I'm just doing a lot, hoping something hits)
• Is this Type 3? (I'm building expertise that helps me see opportunities)
• Is this Type 4? (I'm building something unique that attracts opportunities)

Step 2: Look at where you're thin

Most of us are overweight on Type 2.

We're busy. We're hustling. But we're not building the expertise or uniqueness that compounds.

Ask yourself:

• Am I actually becoming the best in my space at understanding my customers' problems? (Type 3)
• Am I creating something distinctive enough that people seek me out? (Type 4)

If you can't answer yes to at least one of these, you're still playing the lottery.

Step 3: Pick ONE thing to change this week

Don't try to fix everything. Pick one shift:

If you want to build Type 3 (Awareness):

• Block 2 hours to study your best customers' real problems
• Interview 3 customers about their biggest challenges
• Read the book everyone in your industry talks about but you haven't gotten to

If you want to build Type 4 (Uniqueness):

• Write a LinkedIn post only you could write based on your specific experience
• Define your unique angle in one sentence and test it with 3 people
• Commit to sharing your insights weekly (even if it feels uncomfortable)

Stop spreading effort. Stop hoping you'll get lucky.

Start building the conditions where luck finds you.

All the best,

🌱 Tim